2024 presidential election predictions are notoriously unreliable and just as often politically biased. Polls that at first appear decisive often prove to be incorrect or flawed. All of us would like to have a crystal ball to breathe a sigh of relief or have a good cry, depending on what we discover. If only it were that simple. Perhaps more than any previous election in our history, this election cycle has the most novel or odd conditions we’ve ever seen in a forthcoming Presidential Election. Call it the “Perfect Storm”.
From Wild Cards to Certainties: Unveiling the Election Puzzle:
These 2024 Presidential Election Predictions will be unpredictable, but I don’t feel that way. I’ll tell you why in a moment after I review a few of the wild cards in play:
1- Independent Voters: 2024 Presidential Election Predictions:
The wildest of the wild cards are the independent voters within five swing states who almost certainly will likely decide this election. This group determined that the 2022 Red Wave was not to be, largely due to votes by Independent voters under 30. Republicans have an uphill battle to peel off independents who voted Democrat last time.
However, this may not be quite as difficult as it appears. Many of the promises Democrats in office made have been unfulfilled. Young people and others who lean left politically can’t make ends meet and consequently can’t be relied upon to show up and vote. According to LendingClub, 61% of adults live paycheck to paycheck, up from 59% in 2022. This is a significant opportunity for Republicans to develop messaging that makes Independent voters reflect before pulling the lever for Democrats again. Independent voters suddenly hear a cacophony of voices calling for Biden not to run, most notably the Washinton Post columnist David Ignatius. Has Ignatius permitted Dems to talk about the elephant in the room finally?
2- Biden’s Challenges: Navigating a Minefield of Issues:
President Biden has multiple challenges, all laid with closely spaced landmines. Nothing much will help him, either. His son is a solid negative. He has been indicted with the likelihood of more shoe-dropping likely. Kamala is nothing but bad news, and Biden’s age, apparent frailty, and evident dementia force many to see him as inept. And all bets are off if the Republicans can connect him with provable corruption, which may be a matter of time with an Impeachment Inquiry underway.
Overlay this with an economy sucking the average Joe’s money out of their pocket faster than they can earn it, forcing many to rely on credit cards to make ends meet. Biden doesn’t acknowledge that inflation is killing the young and middle class. How will that work on an electorate being financially shellacked by Bidenomics, which is tied to tanking our economy, making many more poor? Even America’s Happiness Index is the lowest since records have been kept! That Gallup poll was taken last year; would the numbers likely be even lower today? How many unhappy Americans will likely flock to a Biden/Harris ticket again? Issues like these add up.
3- The Biden-Harris Continuum: A Second Term Conundrum:
There is a growing belief that, if elected again, Biden will not be able to finish his second term. Biden’s insistence on keeping Kamala Harris on as VP is fascinating. Arguably, a vote for Biden is a vote to elect Harris. Why aren’t more Dems squealing with delight at the possibility? Some are. But, with her approvals in the low 30s, Harris could never win a Presidential election alone. But what if she could bypass that stressful and challenging process and just be elevated to the Office of the President? People are becoming cognizant that next year’s election is more about Harris than Biden.
4- Uncertain Legal Future of Joe Biden:
Sadly, former President Trump very much has his quicksand issues. Uncharted territory doesn’t begin to explain his legal exposure. How much time and money will it take to defend himself in court against a barrage of charges intended to put him away for life? However, Trump’s followers differ significantly from Biden’s, such as a potentially more energized base. Trump is also the only proven Republican candidate who has demonstrated that he will fight the swamp and may now have the experience to understand what works and what doesn’t. Will Trump jump back into quicksand through unforced errors as he has in the past? Unfortunately likely. Yet, millions of Americans see the next election as a referendum on the Deep State’s unequal treatment of him and MAGA followers in general.
5- 2024’s Anti-Trump Vote: Will It Shrink or Surge?
Other key issues include the number of people voting against Trump in the last election but not because they preferred Biden. Will there be fewer this time? I believe so. Biden’s underwhelming performance has ameliorated some of the rhetoric and hatred of Trump. Biden will also be unable to stay in the basement to the degree he did last time, giving ample opportunity to demonstrate his competence and acumen, or lack thereof. Biden’s performance in public is frequently poor, with the trendline declining. Party loyalty only goes so far, and a significant majority of Democrats don’t want Biden to run again. An important difference from the last go-around!
6- From Impeachment to ‘Lawfare’: Trump’s Battle Beyond Politics:
Trump himself. America loves an underdog, and we value fair play. Americans are starting to accept Trump hasn’t been treated equally under the law. A new term has entered our vernacular. i.e.,” lawfare.” Most Americans don’t think January 6thwas the worst event in American history, as Democrats claim, and the media continues to pound the public without end, but not as effectively anymore. Trump’s fighting back, generally standing alone, without obvious supporters coming to his defense. That makes him singularly attractive to those of us who admire someone who believes in himself and is seen to be fighting for us.
Who else is fighting for the American dream, not just talking about it?
Few elections can ever be said to be ‘in the bag.’ Many people I know believe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. However, these same people didn’t think Biden would even serve a year or two in office either. Electing a President is not like handicapping a horserace. Too many factors, variables, moving pieces, missteps, world events, and sometimes even providence get in the way.
Some of these people didn’t think Biden would serve as long as he has. What happens if Biden drops out from 2024 presidential election predictions? What are the Democrats ‘ options? Harris is the presumptive Presidential nominee for 2028 if a Biden/Harris ticket prevails in 2024. Harris has poor support from her Party, except perhaps at the fringes.
Newsom & Manchin: Unpredictable Elements in Upcoming Elections:
Then, there’s the question of moderate Senator Joe Manchin as a potential Democratic spoiler in the upcoming election. I’ve talked to Dems who think a third-party candidate like Joe would be the Democrat’s Death Star, benefitting Donald Trump significantly over Biden. We can only hope!
Former Senator Joe Lieberman‘s ‘No Labels’ initiative publicly states they won’t run a candidate if they would become a spoiler in the election. But, my guess is that with Manchin in a difficult-to-win reelection situation, and considering the investment made by ‘No Labels’ so far, it’s 60-40 in favor of a third-party Presidential run next year.
We’ll have to wait and see! It will be interesting, even as I’m scared to death of another Biden or, God forbid, Harris Presidency.
God Bless America.
Allan J. Feifer—Patriot
Author, Businessman, and Thinker. Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com